Sunday, 14 December 2014

How many Extraterrestrial Intelligences in the Milky Way Galaxy?

These are my estimations, predictions, based on what I wrote the previous 2 entries:

Number of Stars in Milky Way Galaxy:  200 billion

Number of Planets in Milky Way Galaxy:  1 trillion

Number of Earth / Super Earth Planets in Habitable Zone:  100 billion

Number of Planets with Life:  250 million

Number of Planets with Multi-cellular Life:  30 million

Number of Planets with Sentient species:  100,000

Number of Planets with Civilizations:  5,000

Number of Planets with Space-Faring, Radio communicating Civilizations:  less than 100


That's not a lot.

Given the sheer size of our galaxy, on average, the nearest such civilization is at least 10,000 light years away.

A light year is 9.46 trillion kilometres (5.88 trillion miles).  Our nearest "friends" are something on the order of 95,000,000,000,000,000 kilometres  (59,000,000,000,000,000 miles)

Our fastest interstellar probe (Voyager 1), travels 540 million kilometres (336 million miles) per year.

If it just happens to be traveling in the right direction, it'll take 175,000,000 years to reach it.  They'll probably be long gone by then.

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